User blog comment:Draevan13/Ulfric's suspicious Thalmor Dossier/@comment-206.168.42.213-20130921073508

I've been replaying Skyrim and I ran into this dossier again. It got me thinking; that evolved into a lot of thoughts, which I had to voice or go insane, so bare with me.

Under interrogation, we learned of his potential value (son of the Jarl of Windhelm) and he was assigned as an asset to the interrogator, who is now First Emissary Elenwen.

A lot of people skip over the fact, that before accepting (or being manipulated into) any deals, Ulfric was, a) a prisoner of the Thalmor, b) extensively tortured by them to the point that he released information under duress (the fact that he is the son of a Jarl), and c) the person that tortured him was a mage. And not just any mage, but Elenwen, who we all know to be politically brilliant (I'm assuming much of her current status in-game is due to how she's dealt with Ulfric).

The fact that Elenwen is a mage shouldn't be overlooked. As other people have said, it's entirely possible Ulfric was seduced and manipulated by illusion magic against his will, which is supported by the fact that the Thalmor (or rather, Elenwen) let him escape, without his knowledge:

He was made to believe information obtained during his interrogation was crucial in the capture of the Imperial City (the city had in fact fallen before he had broken), and then allowed to escape.

This implies he took on a sort of sleeper agent role, because Ulfric did not know the information was false, and thus did not actually cause the fall of the Imperial City at all, nor did (it's assumed) he give the Thalmor reliable information beyond what was stated (that he's the Jarl's son, and therefore a valuable asset). The question is, what was Elenwen's reason for making Ulfric believe the fall of the Imperial City (and therefore, the Empire's current condition) was his fault?

Ulfric is nothing if not the very definition of a Nord stereotype, and if the Empire fell to the Thalmor because of his information, it would make Ulfric, in his own eyes, a traitor to the Empire, and the Empire itself too weak to be relied upon. In-game, Ulfric himself never denies being a "traitor" to the Empire, but has rather seemed to be embrace it since taking on the fight for an independant Skyrim. Point being, if Ulfric believed he played a role in the fall of the Imperial City, it would turn him against the Empire one way or another--something that the Thalmor obviously benefited from.

''After the war, contact was established and he has proven his worth as an asset. The so-called Markarth Incident was particularly valuable from the point of view of our strategic goals in Skyrim, although it resulted in Ulfric becoming generally uncooperative to direct contact.''

This is the part a lot of people pick apart, and it's true there's a lot of damning things stated here. But it does not necessarily point to Ulfric being a knowing agent of the Thalmor, and more importantly, it also points out that while he might have been an asset once, it's clear that he isn't much of one any longer.

After the war was over, Ulfric returned to Skyrim--more importantly, Markarth. If the above is any indication, Ulfric by this stage has many doubts about the Empire, as well as his place in it, almost all of which were first planted in him by Elenwen. According to the dossier, Ulfric believed that he betrayed the Empire by giving up information under torture, and he also knows for a fact that the City fell, thus the Empire was forced to except the Thalmor's ridiculous terms in order to survive. It's likely that Ulfric's mental state when he arrived in Markarth was not the best; a bomb rigged to explode at the slightest provocation, if you will.

So "contact" was "established," and he "proved his worth as an asset." This is very ambiguous wording; it could mean literally anything, although we do know that whatever contact it was, it was "direct." But, again, this is ambiguous. Direct contact could mean anything from an actual conversation to the use of Illusion magic, or a provocation to light his fuse (which was likely very short at the time, due to Elenwen's manipulations). I'm betting on the latter options, for a variety of reasons.

We know for a fact that Ulfric was a prisoner of the Thalmor, and was likely brutally tortured by them, not to mention the Thalmor willingly let Ulfric go under their own terms (without his knowledge, it should be said). It's unlikely that in Markarth, Ulfric worked with the Thalmor willingly or even knowingly (at first), especially given his personality (deep, unabashed hatred for the Thalmor). He might be turning against the Empire at this stage, but not once as Ulfric forgotten what the Thalmor have done to him, and, well, I don't know about you, but he doesn't seem to be the forgiving type.

It should also be pointed out that Thalmor agents aren't necessarily elves, and therefore it wouldn't be obvious to Ulfric that he was being manipulated. In-game, the Dragonborn is attacked by two Thalmor agents, one a Nord gamed Gissur, the other, a Khajiit named Shavari (when getting Esbern). Ulfric is notoriously racist, so it's possible, imo, that he'd take the words of a Nord spy without much forethought.

So the Thalmor, it's assumed here, pushed Ulfric into acting against the Empire in full during and after the Markarth Incident when he was given, then denied Talos worship (the light to his fuse, which exploded into full-scale rebellion). Given the very heavy Thalmor presence in Markarth, as someone else mentioned, it's entirely possible, and in fact very likely the Thalmor either caused or manipulated the Markarth Incident to their advantage (forcing the Empire to obey their commands, therefore weakening them) by using Ulfric to start civil war.

But somewhere along the way, "''it resulted in Ulfric becoming generally uncooperative to direct contact." ''Did Ulfric find out he was being manipulated and therefore fully break the Thalmor's control over him? It says he was "uncooperative," which implies that, if he was manipulated unknowingly, he, a) found out about it, and b) took measures to truly escape their grasp (retreating far into Skyrim, to Windhelm and his family, a place where he is reasonably safe).

One might think that a Nord, when discovering he's been manipulated by the Thalmor, would attack them directly, but Ulfric is not an ordinary Nord. He's shown to be more patient than most of his kin (his conversation with Galmar), and surprisingly intelligent (leaving the Queen alive after the Stormcloak rebellion); likely because he was raised by the Greybeards. He'd know a bad situation if it came to him, and that retreat was the only option for survival. Since Markarth is pretty much now the Thalmor stronghold of Skyrim, there's no way in Oblivion he'd survive a direct assault against them after the Incident. So, he retreated to a place where the Thalmor (it's assumed) couldn't follow, at least not easily.

''Operational Notes: Direct contact remains a possibility (under extreme circumstances), but in general the asset should be considered dormant. As long as the civil war proceeds in its current indecisive fashion, we should remain hands-off.''

Use of the word "dormant" supports the idea that Ulfric was a sleeper agent. It's unlikely the Thalmor would use this word on someone who was a willing, and aware, agent. Disturbingly, it's also implied here that he still is, or at least, could be sleeping, because "direct contact" is still possible in extreme circumstances.

One of these circumstances was apparently Helgen, at the start of the game:

The incident at Helgen is an example where an exception had to be made - obviously Ulfric's death would have dramatically increased the chance of an Imperial victory and thus harmed our overall position in Skyrim.

So the Thalmor were at Helgen when the Dragon attacked, and likely had a plan to free Ulfric before he could be executed. Of course, Alduin did attack (something the Thalmor were not prepared for, even if it did work with their plans).

The final question is then, even if Ulfric is unwilling participant, he is still a participant, and therefore is he really the best answer for Skyrim? Well, to his credit, the Thalmor seem to think a Stormcloak victory is just as bad as a Legion one. Therefore, he's still a threat.

Also, I realize I completely skip over his "murder" of Torygg, but let's be honest; that was mostly a footnote in the overall conspiracy, and had little to do with the Thalmor. (Ulfric killed Torygg after years of resentment post-Markarth, but that's probably the extent of their influence). Speaking of manipulation, I think it's safe to say that Tullius uses Torygg's death to manipulate the Queen and keep Ulfric off the throne, which is entirely viable given how quick Tullius is to point out Ulfric's "murder" of the High King, when he also doesn't give a damn about Nord customs in general, and in fact, mocks most of them outright. But that's the Empire's manipulations, not the Thalmor.

Anyway. I'm going away, now...