Board Thread:Lore Discussion/@comment-24587225-20150902024621/@comment-26893431-20150903173643

Bronkiin wrote: The Thalmor Dossier says explicitly that they must be as hands off as possible in the Civil War. The only aim of propping up the Stormcloaks is to keep the war going on, not because their victory would be more favourable. The Dossier is completely neutral in regards to which outcome would be better for the Thalmor. Whether or not Stormcloak victory would be the best outcome objectively, that's being discussed in another thread!  obviously Ulfric's death would have dramatically increased the chance of an  Imperial  victory and thus harmed our overall position in Skyrim.

Sounds a bit worse than:

 A Stormcloak victory is also to be avoided

Also, the Dominion aids the Stormcloaks:  however, so even indirect aid to the Stormcloaks must be carefully managed.