User:KINMUNE/chatlog/20180313

https://i.imgur.com/f14214r.png https://i.imgur.com/Sf2NJLQ.png What, is this real https://i.imgur.com/mcgO0yR.jpg Yeah, photoshopped https://i.imgur.com/O4Gq4xd.jpg https://i.imgur.com/ItLy0F5.jpg https://i.imgur.com/v8B09po.jpg https://i.imgur.com/kWSLuGa.png https://i.imgur.com/AVOhakY.jpg 1. https://www.wyzant.com/resources/answers/21529/probabilities_win_a_pick_6_game_where_six_numbers_are_draw_from_the_set_1_through_49_and_get_24_heads_in_a_row_when_you_flip_a_fair_coin 2. https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/489055/flipping-heads-10-times-in-a-row 3. https://www.quora.com/If-you-flip-a-fair-coin-10-times-what-is-the-probability-of-getting-all-tails "the chance of both being tails is 25% because the chance of each one individually being tails is 50%, and you have to multiply that" THis half isn't: "if you know that the 1st one is tails, the chance of the 1st one being tails is 100% and the chance of the 2nd one being tails is 50%. multiply that and you've got a chance of 50% that the 2nd one will be tails also" Why talk about CHANCES if you already know the outcome of the first?
 * 00:01:52: RenzXVI: What the hell https://i.imgur.com/fm6nYGN.gif
 * 00:08:22: RenzXVI: https://i.imgur.com/Y9pVlDG.png
 * 00:19:06: RenzXVI: And then they get big enough to eat https://i.imgur.com/etBPBLJ.jpg
 * 00:22:39: RenzXVI: https://i.imgur.com/f14214r.png
 * 00:23:22: RenzXVI: https://i.imgur.com/Sf2NJLQ.png
 * 00:25:48: RenzXVI: What, is this real https://i.imgur.com/mcgO0yR.jpg
 * 00:27:08: RenzXVI: Yeah, photoshopped
 * 00:36:52: RenzXVI: https://i.imgur.com/O4Gq4xd.jpg
 * 00:42:28: RenzXVI: https://i.imgur.com/ItLy0F5.jpg
 * 00:47:31: RenzXVI: https://i.imgur.com/v8B09po.jpg
 * 00:52:31: RenzXVI: https://i.imgur.com/kWSLuGa.png
 * 00:54:16: RenzXVI: https://i.imgur.com/AVOhakY.jpg
 * 03:10:31: RenzXVI: Hi
 * 03:10:37: RenzXVI: Look at my memes!
 * 03:10:42: Zoder: Hello.
 * 03:10:47: Zoder: Okay!
 * 03:10:50: RenzXVI: If you can scroll up
 * 03:10:55: Zoder: I cannot!
 * 03:11:03: RenzXVI: Oh lol
 * 03:11:13: RenzXVI: And then they get big enough to eat https://i.imgur.com/etBPBLJ.jpg
 * 03:17:05: Zoder: Thank you.
 * 03:17:13: Zoder: You have made my day ultimately better.
 * 03:17:20: RenzXVI: What.
 * 03:18:15: RenzXVI: Well, there were more but I just copy pasted the last ones.
 * 03:19:07: RenzXVI: What the duck!? https://i.imgur.com/R2FwOYe.jpg
 * 03:23:45: Zoder: (y)
 * 10:51:28: RenzXVI: Yashi!
 * 11:16:23: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: yashi?
 * 11:17:06: RenzXVI: I removed the L and moved the Y.
 * 11:22:02: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: I have no i in my name
 * 11:22:18: RenzXVI: ley makes an I sound.
 * 11:22:25: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: true
 * 11:24:23: RenzXVI: Awww, made her rage quit.
 * 11:24:27: RenzXVI: Time for dinner.
 * 12:42:22: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: i'm back
 * 12:42:27: RenzXVI: Hi
 * 12:42:51: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: some guy from the national lottery just tried to sell me lottery tickets
 * 12:42:57: RenzXVI: lol
 * 12:43:07: RenzXVI: Why does he sound important?
 * 12:43:17: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: he doesn't?
 * 12:43:23: RenzXVI: Oh.
 * 12:43:33: RenzXVI: Why does it sound important to sell you tickets?
 * 12:44:34: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: anyway, he didn't seem to get my point when i called the lottery a stupidity tax, but he left me alone after i said my preferred way of throwing money away is flushing it down the toilet
 * 12:44:53: RenzXVI: lol
 * 12:45:50: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: chance to win is roughly the same too
 * 12:46:08: RenzXVI: Actually, no. Not if you do statistics.
 * 12:46:32: RenzXVI: Some guy won 8 times because of knowing what numbers not to play.
 * 12:47:07: RenzXVI: But it's only going to be effective if you overdo it.
 * 12:47:12: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: the lottery is completely random. you can't influence it in such a way
 * 12:47:22: RenzXVI: You can.
 * 12:47:34: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: no
 * 12:47:41: RenzXVI: Statistics.
 * 12:47:51: RenzXVI: You can increase your chances of winning.
 * 12:48:05: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: by buying more tickets
 * 12:48:26: RenzXVI: No, even if you only ever play once.
 * 12:49:03: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: no, you can't. that's the whole point of it being random
 * 12:49:12: RenzXVI: Seriously, statistics works.
 * 12:49:45: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: statistics will show that there's no particular strategy or set of numbers that is more likely to win the lottery
 * 12:50:59: RenzXVI: It's very unlikely for a number to win twice, so never play a number that has won before, do that for every winning number ever on every country. If that's 1000+ numbers then you increase your win chance by 1000 tickets. It's also less likely for the same digits to draw. So never input something like 08 08 08 08 08 08. That's not gonna win since it's not a random number, it's too perfect of a pattern.
 * 12:51:54: RenzXVI: You are just being biasedly stubborn.
 * 12:55:30: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: a number that has already won in the past has the same chance to win as any other number. numbers with the same digits also have an equal chance to win as any other number, it just happens less often because there are less of those numbers
 * 12:56:36: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: seriously, no one who understands how chance works will think the lottery is anything but a waste of money
 * 12:57:01: RenzXVI: You are wrong. Seriously, I guess you have no idea what statistics is.
 * 12:57:18: RenzXVI: With your logic, you are basically saying a number could win 100 times in a row.
 * 12:57:24: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: yes
 * 12:57:26: RenzXVI: No.
 * 12:57:27: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: it's possible
 * 12:57:41: RenzXVI: That's a staggeringly low chance to happen.
 * 12:57:49: RenzXVI: The more ridiculous it is, the less likely.
 * 12:57:54: RenzXVI: That's how statistics works.
 * 12:58:13: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if the number haas already won 99 times, the chance of it winning again is still equal to the chance of it winning every other time
 * 12:58:20: RenzXVI: No.
 * 12:58:39: RenzXVI: You are very biased.
 * 12:59:54: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if you throw a dice, the chance of getting 6 is 1/6. if you got 6 300 times in a row, and throw the dice again, the chance is still 1/6
 * 13:00:33: RenzXVI: No, it multiplies by the times it had already happened.
 * 13:00:51: RenzXVI: It's not just 1/6th
 * 13:01:06: RenzXVI: You are going to count the chance of it happening in the row. And it increases each time.
 * 13:01:40: RenzXVI: There's 1/12 of a chance to win 6 twice in a row. Then 1/18th chance to win 6 3 times in a row.
 * 13:01:50: RenzXVI: And it increases more after that.
 * 13:02:03: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: no. the chance of the previous ones being 6 is 100%, since it happened. the next dice throw does not depend on the previous ones in any way.
 * 13:02:26: RenzXVI: I am not saying it depends on it but it's less likely to happen in a row.
 * 13:03:33: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: throwing 6 twice in a row is indeed less likely than throwing 6 once. however, if you have already thrown 6, the chance of throwing 6 again is equal to the chance of throwing 6 once, since it does not depend on the previous throw
 * 13:03:39: RenzXVI: That's like saying the next person to make a wikia account is just as likely to name themselves The Beautiful Princess Ashley than Bob.
 * 13:03:48: RenzXVI: The Beautiful Princess Ashley, is less likely to happen.
 * 13:03:58: RenzXVI: The chance is not equal.
 * 13:04:28: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: the chance of that is actually 0% since that name is already taken
 * 13:04:47: RenzXVI: No, even if it can be repeated, seriously.
 * 13:04:59: RenzXVI: You are just making excuses now.
 * 13:05:36: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: but anyway, the chance of someone else trying to name themselves that is not influenced by me naming myself that
 * 13:05:52: RenzXVI: I didn't say it was.
 * 13:06:12: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if the chance was 1/235 before i took this name, it's still 1/235 after that
 * 13:06:20: RenzXVI: No, it isn't.
 * 13:06:30: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: except that it is
 * 13:06:39: RenzXVI: Again, you are saying it's the same chance for someone to name themselves Bob than The Beautiful Princess Ashley in the next minute.
 * 13:06:42: RenzXVI: It's less likely.
 * 13:07:10: RenzXVI: Because of the length of your name alone.
 * 13:07:24: RenzXVI: It's the same as the same number winning multiple times in a row.
 * 13:07:38: RenzXVI: The likelyhood of repeating the name increases if you use Finelia's name.
 * 13:07:45: RenzXVI: THat thing is ridiculously ridiculous.
 * 13:07:49: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: i never said there was just as much chance they'd name themselves bob as that they named themselves The Beautiful Princess Ashley
 * 13:08:15: RenzXVI: That's what you were implying, my whole point was that it won't happen.
 * 13:08:22: RenzXVI: And you keep going against it.
 * 13:08:28: RenzXVI: So now you are agreeing?
 * 13:08:38: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: i was never implying that
 * 13:08:48: RenzXVI: Then answer the simple question.
 * 13:08:58: RenzXVI: Are you agreeing now?
 * 13:09:35: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: i was saying the chance of someone wanting to name themselves The Beautiful Princess Ashley has not changed since i took this name, not that it's somehow equal to some other name
 * 13:10:38: RenzXVI: Seriously. It's less likely to happen.
 * 13:11:02: RenzXVI: Compared to any one word common name. Like Bob.
 * 13:11:34: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: it was always less likely to happen compared to a common name like bob. doesn't mean the chance has changed since i took the name
 * 13:11:53: RenzXVI: It's less likely.
 * 13:12:04: RenzXVI: Because it's a greater odd for it to happen twice.
 * 13:13:15: RenzXVI: Like comparing the possibility of how many Johns could be there compared to High-Goddess-Venus-Afrodite-Finelia.
 * 13:13:43: RenzXVI: It's very likely to have a million Johns in the world but there might be only one FInelia.
 * 13:13:55: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: the amount of johns compared to the amount of finelias is completely irrelevant
 * 13:14:01: RenzXVI: 2 million more Johns culd happen before another FInelia.
 * 13:16:01: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if the chance of someone naming themselves finelia is 1/1000, then the chance of another finelia appearing is still 1/1000. we know for a fact that there is 1 finelia, therefore the chance of that being the case is 100% and does not affect future probabilities
 * 13:16:21: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: at least 1*
 * 13:16:43: RenzXVI: Seriously, you keep bringing up that point but it's not what I am talking about.
 * 13:16:57: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: then what are you talking about?
 * 13:17:31: RenzXVI: You are actually right, there is 1/1000 chance for it to happen again but not in a row.
 * 13:17:48: RenzXVI: Forit to happen in a row, it would be 1/2000
 * 13:17:56: RenzXVI: 1/3000 for 3 times in a row.
 * 13:17:59: RenzXVI: And so on.
 * 13:19:58: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: the chance that it happened once is a certainty, therefore does not affect the probability of it happening again. the chance of 3 people named finelia entering here in a row is indeed 1/3000, but if 2 have already entered, the chance of the next person entering being a finelia is 1/1000 again because it does not depend on the previous ones
 * 13:23:03: RenzXVI: Seriously. Your logic is messed up.
 * 13:23:15: RenzXVI: If that were the case then we would have just as many FInelias as Johns.
 * 13:23:23: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: no
 * 13:23:26: RenzXVI: Because the probability doesn't increase in your situation.
 * 13:26:03: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: the chance of finelias entering not being dependent on previous finelias does not mean it's equal to the chance of johns entering
 * 13:27:55: RenzXVI: I dunno how to explain things for you to understand.
 * 13:28:03: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: i seriously do not get how youu inferred that from what i said
 * 14:34:20: RenzXVI: Back
 * 14:35:25: RenzXVI: Anyway, I found the stuff I was talking about, it does get multiplied for how many times the row sequence happens:
 * 14:35:43: RenzXVI: It's less likely to happen in a row than individually.
 * 14:40:53: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: i never denied the stuff in these articles
 * 14:41:26: RenzXVI: Those are exactly what I was trying to explain.
 * 14:41:38: RenzXVI: You can't disagree with me but not deny those.
 * 14:42:12: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if you flip a coin twice, the chance of the 1st flip being tails is 1/2 and the chance of the 2nd flip being tails is 1/2, therefore the chance of them both being tails is 1/2*1/2=1/4
 * 14:42:31: RenzXVI: Yeah, not 1/2 again.
 * 14:42:41: RenzXVI: Then on the third it becomes 1/6th
 * 14:42:53: RenzXVI: You kept saying it's always just 1/2
 * 14:43:18: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if i already flipped the coin once and it landed on tails, the chance of the 1st one being tails is 100%, since it happened, and che chance of the 2nd one being tails is still 1/2
 * 14:43:55: RenzXVI: Now you are contradicting yourself.
 * 14:43:58: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: no
 * 14:44:00: RenzXVI: Repeats in a row are less likely.
 * 14:44:06: RenzXVI: You just said so yourself.
 * 14:46:21: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: the chance of the 2 in a row being tails is lower because you have to multiply the chance of each one individually being tails. if you already know for a fact that one is tails, the chance of that one being tails is 100%
 * 14:47:13: RenzXVI: What? Are you talking about both? It sounds like you are talking about the first coin.
 * 14:49:20: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: the chance of both being tails is 25% because the chance of each one individually being tails is 50%, and you have to multiply that. if you know that the 1st one is tails, the chance of the 1st one being tails is 100% and the chance of the 2nd one being tails is 50%. multiply that and you've got a chance of 50% that the 2nd one will be tails also
 * 14:50:52: RenzXVI: This half of your sentence is clear:
 * 14:51:30: RenzXVI: It's like you are right then somehow you end up being wrong.
 * 14:52:09: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: 100% chance is certainty. we know it, therefore there is 100% chance that it is the case.
 * 14:52:45: RenzXVI: You don't need to talk about the previous one, we already know.
 * 14:52:54: RenzXVI: You are just making it confusing.
 * 14:53:52: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: i need to talk about the previous one since you seem to think it influences the one after that
 * 14:54:37: RenzXVI: You are just going in circles.
 * 14:54:55: RenzXVI: Unless you can explain HOW you both agree and disagree with what I linked, I dunno what you are talking about.
 * 14:56:10: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: i do not disagree with the sources you linked, they just deal with a different situation as what we're talking about
 * 14:56:49: RenzXVI: No, they aren't different. They are what I have been trying to explain.
 * 14:58:21: RenzXVI: The odds stack, it's cumulative, not individual. a coin landing heads is 1/2. heads twice in a row become 1/4 chance, not 1/2 again. It becomes 1/6th the third time in a row. You already agreed to that.
 * 15:00:35: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: twice in a row is 1/4 because each individual toss is 1/2, and 1/2*1/2=1/4. if we already know the 1st one, the chance of it being heads is not 1/2, it's 100%, since we know it's heads. therefore, the chance of both being heads is 100% * 1/2 = 1/2
 * 15:01:47: RenzXVI: Basically, you are saying it's 1/4 then suddenly becomes 1/2 again, you are contradicting yourself.
 * 15:01:55: RenzXVI: There can't be two answers.
 * 15:08:38: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if it is certain that the 1st coin flip is heads, the chance of them both being heads only depends on the outcome of the 2nd flip being heads, which is 1/2.
 * 15:18:01: RenzXVI: I already said that example is confusing. As if yu are rigging the example.
 * 15:23:50: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if you flip 300 coins, the chance of the last one being heads is 1/2, regardless of what the other outcomes are. therefore, even if through sheer coincidence all of the others are heads, the chance of the last one being heads is still 1/2
 * 15:24:23: RenzXVI: No, it adds to it like the rest.
 * 15:24:58: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: no. the chance of the first 299 being heads and the last one being tails is equal to the chance of all of them being heads
 * 15:25:48: RenzXVI: This wasn't even what we were talking about before. Now you changed your argument to only the last flip.
 * 15:26:02: RenzXVI: To avoid agreeing with my explanations and the websites'.
 * 15:26:47: RenzXVI: You are trying to null all the previous flips to fit your own idea.
 * 15:26:57: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: it was always about the last flip. you were saying that the most recent lottery, which is the equivalent of the last flip, is affected by those before it
 * 15:27:50: RenzXVI: No, it wasn't what I was talking about.
 * 15:28:39: RenzXVI: I 100% agree with the websites.
 * 15:28:44: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: you said that numbers that have already won are less likely to be drawn again AKA the previous outcomes affect the next one
 * 15:29:46: RenzXVI: Because that sequence is equivalent to 10 heads in a row. It's less likely to happen.
 * 15:35:56: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: if we already know the outcome of 9 of the 10 coin flips, their outcome does not matter for the chance. the chance of the last coin flip being heads is 1/2 regardless of what any of the others are
 * 15:39:53: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: anyway, i have to go now. we'll have to continue this on a later date.
 * 15:40:15: RenzXVI: No, follow the examples of the sites. If it's 10 flips then it's 1/2^10 if it's 11 then 1/2^10.
 * 15:40:28: RenzXVI: You are practically cheating it by adding some other rule.
 * 15:40:41: RenzXVI: I mean 1/2^11 for 11.
 * 15:41:03: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: those sites assume we don't know the outcomes of the first 9 flips. the lottery situation is one where we do know all the previous outcomes
 * 15:41:45: RenzXVI: No, it doesn't matter if we know or not.
 * 15:41:54: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: it does matter
 * 15:42:09: RenzXVI: The chance of a head or tail happening in 10 times is still 1/2^10
 * 15:42:36: RenzXVI: It's not Shrodingers cat.
 * 15:42:56: RenzXVI: Seeing the coins doesn't do anything.
 * 15:43:07: RenzXVI: It still has only a head and a tail. 1/2.
 * 15:43:19: RenzXVI: If it's 10 times then 1/2^10
 * 15:46:56: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: the moment something happens, the chance of it happening is 100%. the chance of consecutive heads only increases bc you have to multiply the chances of each individual coinflip being heads. if we know for a fact that the first 9 coinflips were heads, the chance of them all being heads is 100% since it's certainty. only the chance of the last coinflip is still 50%. multiply that, and you'll get a 50% chance.
 * 15:47:51: RenzXVI: You don't know what chance means, you are contradicting yourself.
 * 15:48:05: RenzXVI: You are removing CHANCE by making the outcomes certain.
 * 15:48:11: RenzXVI: As if it's 1/1 not 1/2.
 * 15:48:22: RenzXVI: Is it a coin with both heads?
 * 15:48:26: RenzXVI: And no tails...
 * 15:48:33: RenzXVI: Oh well.
 * 21:32:23: Lost Planet and dead space: Hello
 * 21:41:14: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: hello
 * 21:42:53: Nekyn Alb: Heyo
 * 21:42:54: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: hi nekyn
 * 21:43:02: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: what's up?
 * 21:51:22: Nekyn Alb: Reading up on the Amaranth Hunt
 * 21:51:28: Nekyn Alb: What are you upping?
 * 22:35:32: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: preparing a presentation on the fall of the german democratic republic
 * 22:35:38: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: sorry for the late response btw
 * 22:36:50: Nekyn Alb: no worries
 * 22:37:34: RenzXVI: Hakuna matata
 * 22:37:45: RenzXVI: for the rest of your daaays
 * 22:38:24: Nekyn Alb: I was wondering what the German Democratic Republic was for a moment
 * 22:38:58: Nekyn Alb: damn commies, hunger is not democracy
 * 22:40:01: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: then why do all countries with democratic in their name have abundant hunger?
 * 22:40:34: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: german democratic republic, democratic republic of the congo, democratic people's republic of korea
 * 22:40:52: RenzXVI: Because they don't have enough burgers like fat Americans.
 * 22:41:01: Nekyn Alb: It's to hide from the USA
 * 22:41:10: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: ah yes
 * 22:41:16: Nekyn Alb: they wouldn't intervene in a democratic country
 * 22:41:31: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: you can't bring democracy if it's already a democracy
 * 22:43:23: Nekyn Alb: http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/218/908/247.gif
 * 22:45:04: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: an elected government is not at all democratic though. no country with "democratic" in its name ever has it
 * 22:46:55: Nekyn Alb: That's why the US doesn't have it
 * 23:55:31: KINMUNE: Hello there, Canes4ever!
 * 23:55:39: The Beautiful Princess Ashley: hi